6 Years of Fall/Winter Es Using PropNET

As time permits, I will start adding comments about the data I collected here in North Texas since the fall of 2005.

I will explain later the background of each chart and what it appears to show. I will also update and re-post these charts as the data is audited and re-compiled.

Stay tuned for further updates plus the 6-Year Spring/Summer Es Propagation Study.

73s Art Jackson KA5DWI

Distance Breakdown of Collected 10-Meter PropNET Captures
Over 90% of the captures are within single hop distances of Es propagation. Also notice that there are captures that could be considered F2 propagation. Most of these long distance captures did occur during an Es opening. For that reason, I thought I would include them in the study.

I remind everyone that for these 6 years solar flux levels were quite low and would hardly support F2 propagation.

The following chart displays 10-Meter PropNET captures by local hour (Central Standard). The chart begins at sunrise and goes to the hour before the next one. Each year is different from the others, but show a dual peak diurnal pattern just like what is seen in the spring and summer.

The total captures each season is well below their spring/summer counterpart. The average number of captures each season is about 620 (will be revised upward a little later). This is only about 5% of what is experienced in the spring and summer. What is seen in one fall/winter season can be experienced in one day during the spring/summer one.

The following graph details hour by hour, from sunrise to sunrise the total number of captures during the fall/winter season from 2005-2011. Just as the spring/summer season, there is a dual peaked diurnal pattern and Es are clearly best in the daylight hours. This trend tends to favor late afternoon and early evening as the best time for propagation. Later on we will still see that morning hours have higher probabilities.

Typical Es distance hourly trends tend to show a "dual peaked" diurnal pattern just as the spring and summer ones do, except that these patterns favor afternoon peaks rather than morning ones.


As distances increase, the pattern tends to favor morning periods. This is opposite of what is seen in the spring and summer.



The following three charts show daily activity experienced for the five years measured. Overall, it shows a very slight peak of activity centered at the Winter Solstice. The polynomial trendline barely indicates this and has only a slight accuracy to the data. Spring/Summer trendlines are much closer. The indications still show that from the solstice through the holiday season is the best time to be on.



Active hour statistics are more specific than the activity data. Trendlines from season beginnings to its end are more clear. The peak near the Winter Solstice is much more defined.


To this day, many believe that the afternnon and early evening hours are best for Es. Although activity was best in the afternoon, active hours are clearly best in the mornings. The following charts look similar to their Spring/Summer counterparts.



Now that the new cycle has begun in earnest, it will be interesting to see what the future data will show.

73s
Art KA5DWI