All of the following charts are based on 7 years collecting 10-Meter PSK31 signals on PropNET here in North Texas.
This chart represents what portion of the day will have Es activity.
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These are hourly probabilities in 3-week segments from April 25 - August 28.
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The following charts a single week hourly probabilities throughout the entire season.
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Your results may vary, but understand that after 7 years I have discovered that Es have their own schedule and will follow very distinctive patterns. Do not look towards severe weather as a cause, only as a possible, but not probable localized enhancement. The only outside affect I have found are meteor showers.
I hope this helps your enjoyment of HF and VHF.
73s
Art Jackson KA5DWI