Weekly June 13 -19 Es Recap de KA5DWI
Since the poor propagation day of June 7, conditions have been absolutely outstanding. For the week I had almost 1800 captures and averaged 17.6 hours each day with a capture or identified partial. To my knowledge, it may have been the best single week of hourly activity since I began measuring 5 years ago. Overall, it was 5 hours above the 4-year average (12.7 hours)!
June 16 and 18 were outstanding days with 22 and 23 hours of activity (Dave’s routine missed 2 partials during the 07 UTC hour. It actually was 24 hours on June 18.). The only minimal day was June 15. The dual peak diurnal is clearly evident for the capture volume data.
During my local 10 AM, 4 PM, 5 PM and 6 PM hours, I had a capture every day during the week. Area coverage was once again great. It was short to W5LA @ under 500 KM and long to NH7O @ 5930 KM. I got Ev captured a few times.
I would think that this will be the best week of the season, but conditions will continue to be outstanding for the next 4 weeks. Your participation will be greatly appreciated. Look for more interesting openings and particularly excellent VHF events.
73’s
Art Jackson KA5DWI EM12ju
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Sunday, May 31, 2009
5th Week Es Recap (May 23- May 29)
Hi All,
I will try to keep you all up to date to what I am seeing here from N. Texas for the Spring/Summer Es season. I will also update the PropNET Yahoo Group as well.
To restate, these are derived from my PNP Capture data here in Fort Worth, TX. It does not include captures of my signal, nor data from another source.
This week (May 23-May 29) as expected, Es continued to be better in terms of opportunities. The number of Catches was down this week, but the number of hours with activity was markedly better. This week, roughly 13.5 hours of each day had an occurrence of an Es Catch, up 3 hours from the prior week. One hour of the day, 12:00 Noon Local CDT had a Catch each day. This was the first 100% weekly active hour this season. Compared to the 4-Year study compiled, overall activity was 1.5 hours each day above the 4-year average.
The afternoon hours prior to sunset remain the most active, but the overall seasonal results are now beginning to clearly show the "Dual-Peaked" diurnal experienced in past years. This means that there is a peak of activity in the morning and again in the afternoon. This trend is clearly evident in all 4 years.
Overall for the week, it was still is fairly quiet compared to other years during the local morning hours and highly active in the late afternoon and evening hours. That trend has been consistent all season and it will be interesting to see how long it continues.
Again, thank you all so much for putting out a signal. Earlier today there was so much activity that PropNET signals were QRM'ing each other throughout the morning. Although I lost a number of Catches, it was very exciting to hear so many on at one time.
I get a real kick seeing the map with my captures spread from coast to coast.
Keep up the good work and I will do my best to report.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
EM12ju Fort Worth, TX
I will try to keep you all up to date to what I am seeing here from N. Texas for the Spring/Summer Es season. I will also update the PropNET Yahoo Group as well.
To restate, these are derived from my PNP Capture data here in Fort Worth, TX. It does not include captures of my signal, nor data from another source.
This week (May 23-May 29) as expected, Es continued to be better in terms of opportunities. The number of Catches was down this week, but the number of hours with activity was markedly better. This week, roughly 13.5 hours of each day had an occurrence of an Es Catch, up 3 hours from the prior week. One hour of the day, 12:00 Noon Local CDT had a Catch each day. This was the first 100% weekly active hour this season. Compared to the 4-Year study compiled, overall activity was 1.5 hours each day above the 4-year average.
The afternoon hours prior to sunset remain the most active, but the overall seasonal results are now beginning to clearly show the "Dual-Peaked" diurnal experienced in past years. This means that there is a peak of activity in the morning and again in the afternoon. This trend is clearly evident in all 4 years.
Overall for the week, it was still is fairly quiet compared to other years during the local morning hours and highly active in the late afternoon and evening hours. That trend has been consistent all season and it will be interesting to see how long it continues.
Again, thank you all so much for putting out a signal. Earlier today there was so much activity that PropNET signals were QRM'ing each other throughout the morning. Although I lost a number of Catches, it was very exciting to hear so many on at one time.
I get a real kick seeing the map with my captures spread from coast to coast.
Keep up the good work and I will do my best to report.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
EM12ju Fort Worth, TX
Spring/Summer Es 2009 - First Quarter
Sorry to be late here. I posted it on Yahoo, but not here. .....sorry
Well, the first quarter of the Spring/Summer Es season has finally ended.
The "periodic" season basically occurs 8 weeks each side of the Summer Solstice(April 25 till August 15). Although we will see Es before and after these dates, the consistency of those openings is truly "sporadic". Once the season begins, conditions are very consistent and predictable based on the collection of 5 years of PropNET data and on observing and working them for 35 years on 10,6, and 2 Meters plus an avid FM/TV band DX'er.
Now that the study is in its 5th year, I am able to take the current data and identify similarities and differences to past years experienced.So how does this season compare??
So far we are off to a very good start.
The season is actually very intriguing.
4-Week Recap:
For the first four weeks, the number of active "Es" hours was up over 20% compared to the past four years. Overall, this equated to one more hour of Es activity each day for the four weeks. The activity of first 2 weeks (4/25-5/01and 5/02-5/08) of the season was the best recorded in five years. As the 3rd week began, there was a minor solar disturbance and a slower propagation period compared to past years was the result. It also may have strongly affected the total capture count.
By the 4th week, better conditions returned and the results were consistent with past years. My total capture count was down 20% to the 4-year average…..lower but higher quality.
The Daily Differences:
The primary differences during the day occurred in the late afternoon and early evening.Past data shows, that for the first four weeks of the season, activity is definitely diurnal (daytime). Activity increases once the sun rises and peaks just before noon. It decreases slightly after noon and peaks again just before sundown. Once the sun sets, activity declines rapidly and is very light past midnight.
This year, activity after sunrise till noon has been much lighter. After the noon hour, activity increased dramatically and peaked at sundown. The last time I experienced this type of conditions was in 2005. The appearance of Al, NH7O in Hawaii has helped some, as well as more western activity. But to my surprise, I saw better activity towards the east during these hours as well. Activity remained high past sundown until midnight, but was non-existent during twilight hours. As I have stated before, I believe that there is nothing that indicates weather conditions has had anything to do with these results. In fact this year has been fairly quiet in terms of severe weather. It is not that weather systems do not enhance "Es", they just do not create them.
I have 33 different calls logged and a total of 1365 captures in 4 weeks. Dave's (KF6XA) data extract routine has saved a minor disaster due to the lost of the "lurker" computer. Despite a hard drive crash, the old box kept sending LiveX data even when it couldn't write it to the Catch report.
Thanks again for your participation. It is interesting to look at this data and figure out the wonders of Es propagation. Please stay as active as you can throughout the summer and I will make every attempt to report back the results.
Best 73's Art Jackson KA5DWI EM12ju
Well, the first quarter of the Spring/Summer Es season has finally ended.
The "periodic" season basically occurs 8 weeks each side of the Summer Solstice(April 25 till August 15). Although we will see Es before and after these dates, the consistency of those openings is truly "sporadic". Once the season begins, conditions are very consistent and predictable based on the collection of 5 years of PropNET data and on observing and working them for 35 years on 10,6, and 2 Meters plus an avid FM/TV band DX'er.
Now that the study is in its 5th year, I am able to take the current data and identify similarities and differences to past years experienced.So how does this season compare??
So far we are off to a very good start.
The season is actually very intriguing.
4-Week Recap:
For the first four weeks, the number of active "Es" hours was up over 20% compared to the past four years. Overall, this equated to one more hour of Es activity each day for the four weeks. The activity of first 2 weeks (4/25-5/01and 5/02-5/08) of the season was the best recorded in five years. As the 3rd week began, there was a minor solar disturbance and a slower propagation period compared to past years was the result. It also may have strongly affected the total capture count.
By the 4th week, better conditions returned and the results were consistent with past years. My total capture count was down 20% to the 4-year average…..lower but higher quality.
The Daily Differences:
The primary differences during the day occurred in the late afternoon and early evening.Past data shows, that for the first four weeks of the season, activity is definitely diurnal (daytime). Activity increases once the sun rises and peaks just before noon. It decreases slightly after noon and peaks again just before sundown. Once the sun sets, activity declines rapidly and is very light past midnight.
This year, activity after sunrise till noon has been much lighter. After the noon hour, activity increased dramatically and peaked at sundown. The last time I experienced this type of conditions was in 2005. The appearance of Al, NH7O in Hawaii has helped some, as well as more western activity. But to my surprise, I saw better activity towards the east during these hours as well. Activity remained high past sundown until midnight, but was non-existent during twilight hours. As I have stated before, I believe that there is nothing that indicates weather conditions has had anything to do with these results. In fact this year has been fairly quiet in terms of severe weather. It is not that weather systems do not enhance "Es", they just do not create them.
I have 33 different calls logged and a total of 1365 captures in 4 weeks. Dave's (KF6XA) data extract routine has saved a minor disaster due to the lost of the "lurker" computer. Despite a hard drive crash, the old box kept sending LiveX data even when it couldn't write it to the Catch report.
Thanks again for your participation. It is interesting to look at this data and figure out the wonders of Es propagation. Please stay as active as you can throughout the summer and I will make every attempt to report back the results.
Best 73's Art Jackson KA5DWI EM12ju
Sunday, May 17, 2009
First Quarter E-Season Results to be Released
Hello all.
I will release the 2009 "Es" first quarter results on Memorial Day. The season has so far been very interesting. It started off with a bang, but now has settled down. At this date, it is a good season.
Look for it on May 25th.
73's Art KA5DWI
I will release the 2009 "Es" first quarter results on Memorial Day. The season has so far been very interesting. It started off with a bang, but now has settled down. At this date, it is a good season.
Look for it on May 25th.
73's Art KA5DWI
Monday, March 16, 2009
New Spring/Summer Es Probabilty Predictions Loaded
Hi everybody,
Nice TEP conditions observed here on 10 Meters the past few days. Es are now just around the corner. They are 6 weeks away.
In case you all forgot...
I put in the Library last year Spring/Summer probability predictions to work 10-Meter Es based on 3 years of collecting PropNET data from you all. It was part of a study that have been working on.... what seems like an eternity.
The eternity allowed me to put in a 4th year of analysis and smooth out the overall product.
You can find it in the Library on the PropNET Website: http://propnet.org/docs.shtml
or directly at this link:http://propnet.org/docs/art/ProbabilityEs.pdf
This is one part of a very large product I have been working on. I hope to finish it once and for all this summer (but I'd put money on me adding a 5th year).
I entertain your comments and thoughts. Join the blog here and I will be glad to talk more about it.
This for your education, enjoyment, and use. Be sure to give credit to PropNET.org if you print, copy and/or link it.
73's
Art Jacskon KA5DWI
Nice TEP conditions observed here on 10 Meters the past few days. Es are now just around the corner. They are 6 weeks away.
In case you all forgot...
I put in the Library last year Spring/Summer probability predictions to work 10-Meter Es based on 3 years of collecting PropNET data from you all. It was part of a study that have been working on.... what seems like an eternity.
The eternity allowed me to put in a 4th year of analysis and smooth out the overall product.
You can find it in the Library on the PropNET Website: http://propnet.org/docs.shtml
or directly at this link:http://propnet.org/docs/art/ProbabilityEs.pdf
This is one part of a very large product I have been working on. I hope to finish it once and for all this summer (but I'd put money on me adding a 5th year).
I entertain your comments and thoughts. Join the blog here and I will be glad to talk more about it.
This for your education, enjoyment, and use. Be sure to give credit to PropNET.org if you print, copy and/or link it.
73's
Art Jacskon KA5DWI
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
First Draft of the 4-Year Spring/Summer Es Study
Happy New Year all.
During my winter break I completed the first draft of my 4-Year study on the Spring/Summer Es propagation phenomena. It was originally a 3-year study, but due to other circumstances I was unable to complete it and decided to add one more year in the process.
It is currently being reviewed, commented and edited by several other Hams. Sometime in 2009, I hope to see it published or at least presented by me at a conference.
Once that is accomplished, it will be made available to all PropNET participants that made a significant contribution to the study.
Meanwhile I hope to develop a routine to display on the Internet the probabilities of working Es once the season begins (on or about April 25). I entertain any ideas on this.
73's and thank you for your support.
Art KA5DWI
During my winter break I completed the first draft of my 4-Year study on the Spring/Summer Es propagation phenomena. It was originally a 3-year study, but due to other circumstances I was unable to complete it and decided to add one more year in the process.
It is currently being reviewed, commented and edited by several other Hams. Sometime in 2009, I hope to see it published or at least presented by me at a conference.
Once that is accomplished, it will be made available to all PropNET participants that made a significant contribution to the study.
Meanwhile I hope to develop a routine to display on the Internet the probabilities of working Es once the season begins (on or about April 25). I entertain any ideas on this.
73's and thank you for your support.
Art KA5DWI
Monday, October 27, 2008
Updated 2008 Spring/Summer Es Analysis
Hi all,
Expect an updated summary in the Library section of the PropNET website:
www.propnet.org
It contains a few new graphs, comparisons and reflections.
Again, I do not believe that there is any magical reason that Es occur. It's as natural as the seasons and the Sun rising and setting.
Enjoy. I appreciate your feedback.
73's
Art KA5DWI
Expect an updated summary in the Library section of the PropNET website:
www.propnet.org
It contains a few new graphs, comparisons and reflections.
Again, I do not believe that there is any magical reason that Es occur. It's as natural as the seasons and the Sun rising and setting.
Enjoy. I appreciate your feedback.
73's
Art KA5DWI
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