Hi Everyone,
The compiling of the data regarding this study continues. I have finished adding and charting the 5th year of data.
The overall trends I had seen before have only slightly changed, but once again I am encountering scope creep.... which is a good thing.
Now that 5 good years are in the study, I can now put my finger on this phenomena much better. I never wanted to answer what causes Es, for that is a job for a Physicist. I consider myself a Mathematician (or at least in my own mind) and the study is strictly Math based.
Still, I strongly believe that Es are seasonal first (rise and the fall around the Summer Solstice), but the more intense high levels are a direct result of outside influences. I believe that these are influenced by meteors showers. These intense occurrences are limited to specific days and hours within them. 5 years of doing this has allowed me to find them.
I plan to research this data much further to qualify and quantify what I have seen and make it a part of the study. Also I want make this info available to all on the Internet next season. If anyone has some good ideas, let me know.
Finally, I want to reiterate that this study is in no way to answer exactly when and how many times you can work your friend in Kansas (for example) on Es. Its purpose was to determine the probability of working someone on Es by time day and day of the season. For extra measure, I have also shown when the conditions towards a general direction and distance are best.
I am still debating the best method of presenting the study and entertain any ideas who, how and where to do this. I love the subject and can talk for hours on it.
I want your feedback and will eventually answer you.
73's and thanks again for being on PropNET.
Art Jackson KA5DWI
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
2009 Spring/Summer Es Report Finished
Hi all again,
The detailed summary of the 2009 Spring/Summer Es season is now available for your reading pleasure at the "Library' link on the PropNET Webpage.
The direct link is:http://www.propnet.org/docs/art/KA5DWI_2009_Summary.pdf
This is the 5th annual summary. I have done this since 2005.
I have soften it up a little bit, but I still like to chart. That's the Math teacher in me.
The year was phenomenal. I think the best we have had of the past 5 years. What made it special was that 10 Meters was open on average 3 hours more each day this season. Some weeks were as much as 6 hours better.
I will always entertain your questions and comments. I am now starting the process of merging this data into a 5 year study.
Enjoy and thanks again to all of you that participated.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
The detailed summary of the 2009 Spring/Summer Es season is now available for your reading pleasure at the "Library' link on the PropNET Webpage.
The direct link is:http://www.propnet.org/docs/art/KA5DWI_2009_Summary.pdf
This is the 5th annual summary. I have done this since 2005.
I have soften it up a little bit, but I still like to chart. That's the Math teacher in me.
The year was phenomenal. I think the best we have had of the past 5 years. What made it special was that 10 Meters was open on average 3 hours more each day this season. Some weeks were as much as 6 hours better.
I will always entertain your questions and comments. I am now starting the process of merging this data into a 5 year study.
Enjoy and thanks again to all of you that participated.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
Sunday, August 30, 2009
2009 Spring/Summer Es Season Ends
Hello Everyone,
Sadly the 2009 Spring/Summer Es season has ended. It was a unique and exciting season. I believe that it was the best one in the the 5 years I have been measuring the phenomena.
The number of active hours each day was 3 hours higher than the 4-year average.
I will be releasing the annual report hopefully in the next week by Labor Day. I extended the measuring period by 2 weeks in order to measure the end of the season.
Stay tuned... and of course thank you for participating in PropNET.
73s
Art KA5DWI EM12ju
Sadly the 2009 Spring/Summer Es season has ended. It was a unique and exciting season. I believe that it was the best one in the the 5 years I have been measuring the phenomena.
The number of active hours each day was 3 hours higher than the 4-year average.
I will be releasing the annual report hopefully in the next week by Labor Day. I extended the measuring period by 2 weeks in order to measure the end of the season.
Stay tuned... and of course thank you for participating in PropNET.
73s
Art KA5DWI EM12ju
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Interview from Tomas Hood NW7US
Hi everybody,
Tomas Hood, NW7US who is a contributing editor with CQ Magazine, CQ-VHF, and Popular Communications magazines recently interviewed me concerning my now 5 year study of the Es propagation phenomena. The first part of the interview is now available as a Podcast at the following link: http://podcast.hfradio.org/
This is Tomas' new website: the NW7US Space Weather and Propagation Podcast
Besides the interview,
1. Tomas discusses recent solar cycle activity (or the lack of it), and editorializes on the current status of this new Sunspot Cycle 24. Tomas does not agree with some of the conclusions in vogue.
2. Tomas provides a review of the last week in space weather and the resulting radio propagation.
3. The space weather forecast of the coming week is then given, as well as the general outlook for radio propagation.
You will find it informative and interesting.... besides very well done by Tomas and Leigh Hood.
Remember that most of the DX that you will work on the bands is due to propagation conditions, not your TH11DX @ 150 feet, your EME array, or the 2 kilowatt amplifier.
The second part of the interview will be released soon.
Enjoy... It's good listening.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
Tomas Hood, NW7US who is a contributing editor with CQ Magazine, CQ-VHF, and Popular Communications magazines recently interviewed me concerning my now 5 year study of the Es propagation phenomena. The first part of the interview is now available as a Podcast at the following link: http://podcast.hfradio.org/
This is Tomas' new website: the NW7US Space Weather and Propagation Podcast
Besides the interview,
1. Tomas discusses recent solar cycle activity (or the lack of it), and editorializes on the current status of this new Sunspot Cycle 24. Tomas does not agree with some of the conclusions in vogue.
2. Tomas provides a review of the last week in space weather and the resulting radio propagation.
3. The space weather forecast of the coming week is then given, as well as the general outlook for radio propagation.
You will find it informative and interesting.... besides very well done by Tomas and Leigh Hood.
Remember that most of the DX that you will work on the bands is due to propagation conditions, not your TH11DX @ 150 feet, your EME array, or the 2 kilowatt amplifier.
The second part of the interview will be released soon.
Enjoy... It's good listening.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
Monday, July 13, 2009
The 2009 Spring/Summer Es Season So Far
Hi Everybody,
Sorry that I keep forgetting to update the blog. I am on my first vacation in 2 years. Unfortunately, the brain isn't used to not being in a constant state of pressure. I have been updating the PropNET Yahoo group and forgetting to update this one.
So I guess I should let you know what is going on.... If you have had your head in the sand (or in bucket of cold water.. it's 103 today!), this Es season has been the best that I have seen since I have been measuring Es on 10-Meters, in addition to some exciting conditions on 6-Meters. 2-Meters continues to be a bit of a disappointment.
For the last four weeks (last week ending 7/11) we have averaged over 17 hours each day with 10-Meter Es propagation. The prior 4 years has averaged 12 hours during the same period. Last week (w/e 7-11) alone the average was 18.7 hours and made this week the best performer on average for the 5 years of the study (3 other weeks are within a half-hour).
I have witnessed some unique conditions this year. W7IXZ in DN05 2,260 km away was active for almost 15 hours in one stretch. I have had 9 individual hours active for all days of the week, a fairly rare event ( I don't think that has happened before). We have had PropNET captures on 10-Meters between us Venezuela, Hawaii and New Zealand (congrats N5XYO). It appears that this will be the 2nd best capture count for me in five years. The active hours count will be the best.
Non-PropNET 6-Meters propagation has been excellent. Here in N. Texas there have been openings to Central America, Europe and Japan and almost daily to the Caribbean islands. My grid square count is now well above 500. I still can't find Rhode Island... hi hi
2-Meters is still a bit disappointing and I don't know why. There has been 2 openings and both not very good. One was brief and the other one the high MUF cloud was to close. There has not been a good 2-Meter Es opening here (open for several hours) in 6 years.
Sorry that I keep forgetting to update the blog. I am on my first vacation in 2 years. Unfortunately, the brain isn't used to not being in a constant state of pressure. I have been updating the PropNET Yahoo group and forgetting to update this one.
So I guess I should let you know what is going on.... If you have had your head in the sand (or in bucket of cold water.. it's 103 today!), this Es season has been the best that I have seen since I have been measuring Es on 10-Meters, in addition to some exciting conditions on 6-Meters. 2-Meters continues to be a bit of a disappointment.
For the last four weeks (last week ending 7/11) we have averaged over 17 hours each day with 10-Meter Es propagation. The prior 4 years has averaged 12 hours during the same period. Last week (w/e 7-11) alone the average was 18.7 hours and made this week the best performer on average for the 5 years of the study (3 other weeks are within a half-hour).
I have witnessed some unique conditions this year. W7IXZ in DN05 2,260 km away was active for almost 15 hours in one stretch. I have had 9 individual hours active for all days of the week, a fairly rare event ( I don't think that has happened before). We have had PropNET captures on 10-Meters between us Venezuela, Hawaii and New Zealand (congrats N5XYO). It appears that this will be the 2nd best capture count for me in five years. The active hours count will be the best.
Non-PropNET 6-Meters propagation has been excellent. Here in N. Texas there have been openings to Central America, Europe and Japan and almost daily to the Caribbean islands. My grid square count is now well above 500. I still can't find Rhode Island... hi hi
2-Meters is still a bit disappointing and I don't know why. There has been 2 openings and both not very good. One was brief and the other one the high MUF cloud was to close. There has not been a good 2-Meter Es opening here (open for several hours) in 6 years.
The dual peaked diurnal trend in captures and hourly probabilities is still there, but this year it favors the late afternoon period.
We still have five good weeks left and then some good sporatic activity until September. Let's keep our fingers crossed that this trend continues.
Link to the First Half:
73's
Art KA5DWI EM12ju
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Weekly June 13 -19 Es Recap de KA5DWI
Weekly June 13 -19 Es Recap de KA5DWI
Since the poor propagation day of June 7, conditions have been absolutely outstanding. For the week I had almost 1800 captures and averaged 17.6 hours each day with a capture or identified partial. To my knowledge, it may have been the best single week of hourly activity since I began measuring 5 years ago. Overall, it was 5 hours above the 4-year average (12.7 hours)!
June 16 and 18 were outstanding days with 22 and 23 hours of activity (Dave’s routine missed 2 partials during the 07 UTC hour. It actually was 24 hours on June 18.). The only minimal day was June 15. The dual peak diurnal is clearly evident for the capture volume data.
During my local 10 AM, 4 PM, 5 PM and 6 PM hours, I had a capture every day during the week. Area coverage was once again great. It was short to W5LA @ under 500 KM and long to NH7O @ 5930 KM. I got Ev captured a few times.
I would think that this will be the best week of the season, but conditions will continue to be outstanding for the next 4 weeks. Your participation will be greatly appreciated. Look for more interesting openings and particularly excellent VHF events.
73’s
Art Jackson KA5DWI EM12ju
Since the poor propagation day of June 7, conditions have been absolutely outstanding. For the week I had almost 1800 captures and averaged 17.6 hours each day with a capture or identified partial. To my knowledge, it may have been the best single week of hourly activity since I began measuring 5 years ago. Overall, it was 5 hours above the 4-year average (12.7 hours)!
June 16 and 18 were outstanding days with 22 and 23 hours of activity (Dave’s routine missed 2 partials during the 07 UTC hour. It actually was 24 hours on June 18.). The only minimal day was June 15. The dual peak diurnal is clearly evident for the capture volume data.
During my local 10 AM, 4 PM, 5 PM and 6 PM hours, I had a capture every day during the week. Area coverage was once again great. It was short to W5LA @ under 500 KM and long to NH7O @ 5930 KM. I got Ev captured a few times.
I would think that this will be the best week of the season, but conditions will continue to be outstanding for the next 4 weeks. Your participation will be greatly appreciated. Look for more interesting openings and particularly excellent VHF events.
73’s
Art Jackson KA5DWI EM12ju
Sunday, May 31, 2009
5th Week Es Recap (May 23- May 29)
Hi All,
I will try to keep you all up to date to what I am seeing here from N. Texas for the Spring/Summer Es season. I will also update the PropNET Yahoo Group as well.
To restate, these are derived from my PNP Capture data here in Fort Worth, TX. It does not include captures of my signal, nor data from another source.
This week (May 23-May 29) as expected, Es continued to be better in terms of opportunities. The number of Catches was down this week, but the number of hours with activity was markedly better. This week, roughly 13.5 hours of each day had an occurrence of an Es Catch, up 3 hours from the prior week. One hour of the day, 12:00 Noon Local CDT had a Catch each day. This was the first 100% weekly active hour this season. Compared to the 4-Year study compiled, overall activity was 1.5 hours each day above the 4-year average.
The afternoon hours prior to sunset remain the most active, but the overall seasonal results are now beginning to clearly show the "Dual-Peaked" diurnal experienced in past years. This means that there is a peak of activity in the morning and again in the afternoon. This trend is clearly evident in all 4 years.
Overall for the week, it was still is fairly quiet compared to other years during the local morning hours and highly active in the late afternoon and evening hours. That trend has been consistent all season and it will be interesting to see how long it continues.
Again, thank you all so much for putting out a signal. Earlier today there was so much activity that PropNET signals were QRM'ing each other throughout the morning. Although I lost a number of Catches, it was very exciting to hear so many on at one time.
I get a real kick seeing the map with my captures spread from coast to coast.
Keep up the good work and I will do my best to report.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
EM12ju Fort Worth, TX
I will try to keep you all up to date to what I am seeing here from N. Texas for the Spring/Summer Es season. I will also update the PropNET Yahoo Group as well.
To restate, these are derived from my PNP Capture data here in Fort Worth, TX. It does not include captures of my signal, nor data from another source.
This week (May 23-May 29) as expected, Es continued to be better in terms of opportunities. The number of Catches was down this week, but the number of hours with activity was markedly better. This week, roughly 13.5 hours of each day had an occurrence of an Es Catch, up 3 hours from the prior week. One hour of the day, 12:00 Noon Local CDT had a Catch each day. This was the first 100% weekly active hour this season. Compared to the 4-Year study compiled, overall activity was 1.5 hours each day above the 4-year average.
The afternoon hours prior to sunset remain the most active, but the overall seasonal results are now beginning to clearly show the "Dual-Peaked" diurnal experienced in past years. This means that there is a peak of activity in the morning and again in the afternoon. This trend is clearly evident in all 4 years.
Overall for the week, it was still is fairly quiet compared to other years during the local morning hours and highly active in the late afternoon and evening hours. That trend has been consistent all season and it will be interesting to see how long it continues.
Again, thank you all so much for putting out a signal. Earlier today there was so much activity that PropNET signals were QRM'ing each other throughout the morning. Although I lost a number of Catches, it was very exciting to hear so many on at one time.
I get a real kick seeing the map with my captures spread from coast to coast.
Keep up the good work and I will do my best to report.
73's
Art Jackson KA5DWI
EM12ju Fort Worth, TX
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