Probability to Activity, Probability During the Es Season, and Distance Characteristics

Hello everyone,
I can't wait!!
We are 3 weeks away from the beginning of the season.

This is my last post on Spring/Summers Es characteristics. All future posts involve what to look for during the season.

The first chart displays hourly probability during the season along with the actual number of captures for those active hours. It shows a clear correlation with only a minor shift in the late afternoon. I did this chart to show that opportunity reflects into activity.

The next chart shows distance characteristics. It isn't a smooth chart, but shows that for most cases your best opportunity for DX is the late afternoon time frame. This is when you have daylight for a wide spectrum of the world affected by Es (Northern Hemisphere).

The final chart should say seasonal quarters, plus the final 2 weeks. It shows probability of Es for any hour in 4 week segments beginning April 25. Note a clear dual diurnal pattern in each segment. The end of the season shows to be mostly morning active. Also, the final 2 weeks (August 15-August 28) are shown to indicate the true end of the season.

Again, I entertain you comments and questions.

73's
Art KA5DWI

10-Meter Spring/Summer Es Probability de KA5DWI

This is the tell all concerning Es propagation. It is measuring the probability of working Es during the season.

Thanks to the data of John-N5XYO, I was able to fill in several days of the last 2 weeks of August. My return to college kept me off a few days. Probability is based on a single capture in any hour. 1 counts the same as 100. Next week I will show that probability and activity go hand-in-hand.

The probability charts clearly show that the season makes short appearances in late April, is in full swing by the 2nd week in May, and stays that way until the 3rd week of August. Probability of a opening peaks around June 27.

The second degree (x squared) regression analysis of the data for probability is as close to perfect as you could ask for.

By May 10 there is 6 hours of Es each day, by May 20 there is 9 hours. On June 3 there is 12 hours per day and is very near a peak of 14 hours per day by June 20. It is at 90% of peak from June 3 until July 17. As in activity charting, the season takes longer to end than it takes to begin. Probability remains good until the start of the 3rd week in August.

Next week I will post a few more detailed charts about Es and then I will begin to detail more specific information on a weekly basis as well as daily information.

73's - Art KA5DWI