Now that 5 years of data was collected and PropNET participation each year was consistent and the data displayed definitive trends, there still existed a few unexplained holes. Although I averaged combinations of days and hours, most of these charts displayed many peaks and valleys. It stirred up my curiosity and I decided to investigate it on a micro level.
Five years of participation had produced good probability data supported by capture numbers. It was proven that the higher the probability of Es, the number of captures during the occurrence was also higher. With this mind, the volume and incident data was combined to the level of a specific day and specific hour within it. The first attempt using 3-hour averages was not satisfactory. It failed to show extremes. In this analysis extremes need to be tracked in order to show the abnormalities.
In this final analysis, the hourly incidents (probability statistics) from April 25 to August 15 are graded on a 0 to 5 scale. A “0” ranking meant no opening, a ranking of “5” meant an opening all five years. Next, the hourly capture rate for each hour it was open was ranked in a similar manner. The hourly rate was based on the number of annual openings for that hour, not for the 5 year period. For example, if at 15:00 on May 23rd captures were recorded for 3 out of 5 years and a total of 60 captures occurred, a rate of 20 was assigned and applied to a similar scale (0-5).
The final process was to apply a scale based on the overall merit given from both probability and capture rates. The end result identified those events that appear to be special year to year during the Es season.
The Activity Scales:
The first activity scale applied to each hour of each day is one of probability. The low end (violet) will indicate no activity in 5 years. The high end (burnt orange) indicates an opening all five years.
The second activity scale is for capture rate when an opening occurred. It is based on the hourly capture rate as a ratio of the hours open.
The “Overall Rating Scale” is based on the combination of both the probability and capture rate scale. If there was no activity found, the “No Activity” (violet) is assigned. If one opening in five years with 6 or less captures occurred it was assigned “Light” (blue).
When viewing and interpreting these scales whenever it is yellow, orange or burnt orange (good to extreme) are the best times to operate. You will find that this occurs for most of the daytime periods into the median of the Es season.
The “Probable PNP No.” is a representation of the probable number of PropNET participants captured during the event. It may have been less, and possibly more and based on normal PropNET operating procedures.
The Chart:
The first row is the date of the season and the number of days prior to or after the Summer Solstice. The second row is the overall rating for each hour. Each date is displayed from local daylight saving time 12:00AM midnight to 11:00 PM. The third row is the probability rating. The number displayed was the years that an opening occurred. The fourth and final row was the hourly capture rate for those years open.
The results were somewhat startling. There are active days with good to extreme conditions, preceded or followed by poor ones. As this data was compiled, I realized that several of the days that had “Excellent” and “Extreme” conditions were days that I had experienced excellent VHF openings in the past.
By using this method of assessment and additional ranking of the daily results, the best days of each season can be identified. The DX enthusiast can now concentrate on individual days that historically produce excellent results.
60 days (slightly more than half) within the Es season have been identified as to being historically active days. In this review, an attempt to specifically detail traits will be attempted.
Es Activity Calendar:
Now that five years of data was collected, I was able to distinguish those days during the season that displayed excellent conditions. I have identified and ranked the 20 best days of the season for the following criteria:
1. High Rates – When open, a high rate of captures occurred.
2. High Activity – For the 5 years measured, a high number capture rate occurred overall.
3. High Probability – For the 5 years measured, a high number of open hours occurred.
4. Top 20 - Based on the 3 prior measurements, these days were within the top 20 days in the season.
5. Top 60 - Based on the 3 prior measurements, these days were within the top 60 days in the season.
The Best 20 Days of the Season:
The following dates are ranked from the 1st to the 20th.
6/16, 6/30, 7/8, 6/4, 6/3, 7/29, 6/5, 5/22, 6/29, 6/19
6/28, 7/13, 7/7, 6/15, 5/28, 6/13, 7/12, 7/28, 6/12, 6/23
1st Quartile Spring/Summer Es Season (April 25 – May 22):
The scale charting begins at 7:00PM on April 24. It signifies 00:00 UTC April 25. As noted, Es activity is very light and in five years measured, openings occurred for the most part only in one single year. The first evidence of any “good” level of Es activity occurs on the afternoon of May 4. The May 3-5 range shows the elevated levels. The first excellent conditions (orange) occur on May 9 and 10. The openings on this date occurred for only 2 to 3 years but when it was, the capture rates were at extreme levels (burnt-orange).
Activity levels improve and do have some periods less active. With the exception of the May 9-11 spark, the best conditions are during daylight hours.
Es Activity Calendar: April 25 – May 22
May 2: High Rates
May 3: High Rates Top 60
May 5: High Rates
May 7: High Rates
May 8: High Rates
May 9: High Rates High Activity Top 60
May 10: High Rates Top 60
May 11: Top 60
May 15: Top 60
May 20: Top 60
May 22: High Activity Top 20
2nd Quartile Spring/Summer Es Season (May 23- June 21):
The scale charting begins at 00:00 Local Daylight Time (Central) May 23. Es activity during each daytime period is very good (Yellow) in the five years measured. A few excellent hourly openings (Orange) will occur during daylight hours for most days in the quartile. The first evidence of extreme conditions (Burnt-Orange) in Es activity occurs on the morning of June 4-5. Some lulls in activity occur during this period, but are short-lived. 8 of the 20 top activity days occur in this quartile.
The best day of each Spring/Summer Es season is June 16. For 5 five years this date is highly ranked in probability, high hourly capture rates when open, and general high activity overall. The period from June 3 to June 17 are the best times of the season and should be the focus of all DX’ing activities.
Es Activity Calendar: May 23 – June 21
May 24: Top 60
May 26: High Probability Top 60
May 27: Top 60
May 28: High Activity Top 20
May 29: Top 60
May 30: High Probability Top 60
May 31 High Probability Top 60
June 1: Top 60
June 2: High Probability Top 60
June 3: High Activity High Rates Top 20
June 4: High Activity High Rates Top 20
June 5: High Probability High Activity Top 20
June 6: Top 60
June 8: High Probability High Activity
June 9: High Activity High Rates Top 60
June 10: High Rates Top 60
June 12: High Probability Top 20
June 13: High Probability Top 20
June 14: Top 60
June 15: High Probability High Activity Top 20
June 16: High Probability High Activity High Rates Top 20
June 17: High Probability Top 60
June 18: Top 60
June 19: High Activity Top 60
June 21: High Probability Top 60
3rd Quartile Spring/Summer Es Season (June 22 – July 20):
The scale charting begins at 00:00 Local Daylight Time (Central) June 22. Es activity during each daytime period remains very good (Yellow) in the five years measured. Excellent hourly openings (Orange) will occur during daylight hours for about 3/4th of the days in the quartile. A few lulls do occur. Extreme conditions (Burnt-Orange) in Es activity occur midday on June 30. As in the prior quartile, 8 of the 20 top activity days occur also in this one. The second and thirds best activity days of each Spring/Summer Es season are June 30 and July 8.
Es Activity Calendar: June 22 – July 20
June 22: High Probability Top 60
June 23: High Activity Top 20
June 24: High Probability Top 60
June 25: High Probability Top 60
June 26: High Probability Top 60
June 27: Top 60
June 28: High Activity High Rates Top 20
June 29: High Activity High Rates Top 20
June 30: High Activity High Rates Top 20
July 1: High Rates Top 60
July 3: Top 60
July 4: High Probability
July 5: Top 60
July 6: Top 60
July 7: High Probability High Activity Top 20
July 8: High Probability High Activity Top 20
July 9: High Probability Top 60
July 12: High Probability High Rates Top 20
July 13: High Activity High Rates Top 20
July 14: Top 60
July 16: Top 60
July 17: Top 60
July 19: High Activity Top 60
4th Quartile Spring/Summer Es Season (July 21 – August 15):
The scale charting begins at 00:00 Local Daylight Time (Central) July 21. During this period, Es begin a general decline. Still, Es activity during the daytime remain very good (Yellow) well into August. Excellent hourly openings (Orange) occur on July 28 and 29. July 29 has had a history of being one of the top 10 days of the season. Daily lulls become more common place, but no clear end of the season appears until August 15. Extreme conditions (Burnt-Orange) in Es activity do not occur during this period, although excellent conditions will occur as late as August 12. Only 2 of the top 20 and 7 of the top 60 activity days occur in the 4th quartile. The Es season ends quietly within 2 weeks after August 15.
Es Activity Calendar: July 21 – August 15
July 25 Top 60
July 27 Top 60
July 28 High Activity High Rates Top 20
July 29 High Activity High Rates Top 20
August 2 Top 60
August 3 Top 60
August 12 Top 60
Probabilities 8/15 – 8/28:
Beginning 8/15, Es activity begins to decline rapidly. As noted, it is not unusual to experience very good conditions now and then for an hour or two.
Next: The Final Recap, Helpers, Summary, Glossary
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